[Written By External Partner]
Artificial intelligence is making an impact across nearly every industry on the planet, changing how we work and socialize. Sports are certainly not exempt from AI’s influence either, nor is the use of AI in sports betting and prediction-led activities like DFS.
Yet, just how impactful is AI in sports predictions? If we consider the upcoming NFL season, which will see billions of dollars of betting volumes in the coming months, we can say that AI is playing an increasing role. Yet, it remains niche. Moreover, there also areas where AI’s usefulness is misunderstood.
The first thing to say is that, yes, AI can be useful and beneficial in making football predictions, but there are several caveats. For a start, you aren’t simply going to feed the NFL Week 1 game odds into ChatGPT and expect it to throw out some magic winning formula. It won’t be any better than expert (human) football tipsters, and in some ways, it could be inferior.
AI has had mixed success in sports predictions
Indeed, it’s important to stop thinking of AI as some sort of clairvoyant right out of the gate. It doesn’t have a crystal ball to see into the future. Even specialist teams running sports predictions – we can use the example of IBM’s WATSON – have mixed results.
The best way to look at AI with regard to sports predictions is a data analyst. It can, most certainly, exceed humans in the vast amounts of data it can sift through, and, in that respect, it can help with your sports predictions.
But where is that data? You are probably going to need a little more input than the divisional tables and win-loss results of each team. In fact, to really get the most out of it, you will need to access data from professional football data platforms, which are often behind paywalls.
AI can help pinpoint value
Once you get the data, the next step is to compare the data to the available odds. Most likely, you will be looking beyond the moneyline and spread into stats-based props bets. The role of the AI here would be to analyze the available statistics and compare it to the available odds. You are basically asking the AI to pinpoint where sportsbooks have erred, i.e., are offering too much value in the bet.
None of this is easy, of course. Sportsbooks don’t pick the odds out of thin air, and each market will be created as the result of deep statistical correspondence. So, for example, if a quarterback is having the season of his life, you aren’t suddenly going to discover huge odds for him to throw for a touchdown in a game where his team is favored to win. It doesn’t work like that.
However, there can be discrepancies between the odds and the data, and that is where AI’s role comes in. It should be viewed as a discoverer of value, highlighting those rare cases where the sportsbook is ‘wrong’. All of this takes patience, and no small amount of hard work. Your labor costs, as well as elements like premium sports data subscriptions, should be factored in. But just remember that success is not guaranteed. We’ll finish by recommending that you be wary of anyone offering AI sports predictions through subscription services. These types of betting “cheat codes” predate AI, but they are ubiquitous now, often advertised on social media. Some are legitimate, but others aren’t, and we would be very skeptical about any brand claiming to offer guaranteed success. Sports simply don’t work like that.
